"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts." -- Albert Einstein
The world is inundated with data.
But yet Hollywood can't guarantee a hit.
The outcome of the Stanley Cup can't be confirmed.
The future UK PM officeholder can't be verified.
And the next chef to beat Bobby Flay can't be affirmed.
Still, we love data.
"Do a survey. Do a focus group. Do a study."
Do more data.
I don't think the magic is in more data.
Data should not be about trying to use the information to prove a theory, but to see what the numbers are actually telling us and to inform us what we might be missing - especially since the mind likes to trick us.
You see, our brains are wired to remember and overvalue the vivid and the shocking. Our brains are wired to remember events that actually happened and not events that could happen.
So often we comfort ourselves in data to gain a better understanding and some guidance, but the data often falls short.
In their book, Why Everything You Know About Soccer is Wrong, authors Chris Anderson and David Sally concluded that soccer is basically a 50/50 game. Half is luck, and half is skill.
With this conclusion, the authors determined there are two routes to soccer glory. One is being good. The other is being lucky. You need both to win a championship. But you only need one to win a game.
Disney CEO Bob Iger used a similar conclusion this week.
With the announcement of his company's over the top Disney+ streaming service, Iger is going where his customers are going. One where customers can customize their viewing experience and seamlessly view Mickey and Minnie on numerous devices.
No survey, no focus group, and no study needed to know this is a good move for Disney.
Disney has a customer experience that is visceral and multigenerational. A customer experience that is deep and broad. A customer experience forged with skill.
But Iger knows Disney needs more than skill to win the future.
As Iger told CNBC, if you measure the future against the present, the present doesn't stay the present for very long. Today's marketplace has never been more dynamic.
You can't measure what is happening today. You need to measure what you think will happen in the future - that and harness a little luck.
The reasons many of us don't innovate is the data and the information being used is shaped by a current business model and what has gotten us to our current status.
Data which is based on the present and data which is not of the future.
So be mindful of having too much data as a means to confirm what you want the outcome to be.
Plus don't be afraid of harnessing a little bit of luck.
- Marc
Marc A. Ross is the founder of Brigadoon and specializes in thought leader strategy and idea amplification for senior executives working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics
Consumer Spending + EVs + Mickey Mouse + Burgers
US shopping centre vacancies rise to eight-year high: FT reports, increase comes on signs of faltering consumer spending and pressure from ecommerce.
58.4 percent market share for EVs in Norway: In March, fully electric cars made up nearly 60 percent of the new-car market in Norway, a world record. A recent increase in the electric sales coincided with deliveries of Tesla’s Model 3 and Audi’s e-tron. The country aims to end sales of all fossil-fuel vehicles by 2025.
David Perell: What did Gutenberg’s printing press actually change?
Book prices fell. The raw price of books fell by 2.4 percent a year for over a hundred years after Gutenberg.
In places where there was an increase in competition among printers, prices fell swiftly and dramatically. Competition works. When an additional printing firm entered a given city market, book prices there fell by 25%.
Extreme loneliness or the perfect balance? How to work from home and stay healthy: More and more people are working where they live, attracted by the promise of flexibility, efficiency, and no commute. But does this come at a cost to their wellbeing? http://bit.ly/2K3BH4J
How Disney grew its $3 billion Mickey Mouse business–by selling to adults: Apple, Gucci, Kate Spade, Uniqlo, L’Oréal, and Maybelline are just a few of the companies that sell Mickey-branded products for grown-ups. Here’s how Disney made adults fall in love with a cartoon character. http://bit.ly/2K9n3c2
Inside the race to build the burger of the future: Trump says Democrats and environmental wackos are waging a war on beef. But corporations, not politicians or activists, are leading the post-meat revolution. https://politi.co/2K3tgGx
The heart of a swimmer vs. the heart of a runner: Regular exercise changes the look and workings of the human heart. And researchers are discovering that different sports affect the heart differently. https://nyti.ms/2Uwmw7W