That's how many active state-based conflicts the world is currently running, the highest since records began in 1946. Not a spike. A structural shift. The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) put it plainly: "Despite a sharp decrease in battle-related deaths from 2022 to 2023, the past four years have been the most violent period since the end of the Cold War."
The post-Cold War calm is over.
Here's the part founders should sit with.
Smaller countries can now defend themselves against bigger ones in ways that were impossible five years ago. Drones. AI targeting. Cheap precision weapons. Commercial location data weaponized against deployed troops.
The Economist writes that smart tech makes war a dumber choice but a cheaper one to start. Ross Douthat of the NYT points out that America's mighty military is built for the wrong century. Every defense ministry on the planet is now writing the same memo, asking whether half its force structure will be obsolete in a decade.
That memo is a market.
When a $4 billion legacy platform becomes a question mark, the budget doesn't disappear. It moves. It moves toward whatever is cheap, mobile, software-defined, and buildable in 18 months rather than 18 years.
Then there's the AI line. JD Vance told Air Force Academy graduates this week that the military should never allow AI to make life-or-death decisions. The Pentagon is moving forward with AI in war anyway.
The gap between the stated policy and the deployed reality is exactly where the next decade of defense procurement gets written, and exactly where the governance fight gets ugly.
The incumbents are optimized for the war that isn't coming. The buyers know it. The capital is starting to move.
If half the existing force structure is obsolete inside a decade, who is building the half that replaces it, and are you early or late?
Enjoy the ride + Plan accordingly.
-Marc
Founder @ Brigadoon
Brigadoon | Know What's Next.
*****
Marc Ross specializes in Geopolitics + Communications for global business, at the intersection of commerce and governments. Founder of Caracal Global, a communications consultancy serving Fortune 1,000 companies, private equity, and founder-led businesses; and Brigadoon, an intelligence network connecting founders and civic leaders since 2013. DET, WAS, EDI, LON. marc@caracal.global | marc@brigadoon.live | +1 202 596 5270
