Brigadoon Weekend = Global Street Smarts
February 27, 2021
Your decision is probably wrong.
“Even smart people in clever organizations make bad decisions." -- Paul Nutt, a management professor at The Ohio State University
Half of your decisions are a success.
Half of your decisions are a failure.
Based on his research, Professor Nutt has determined you are just as likely to make a failed decision as a successful decision.
A primary culprit of generating failed decisions is a half-hearted or limited search for alternatives during the decision-making process. Many executives end up selecting from a limited pool of options, decreasing their odds of making the best possible decision.
Steven Johnson, author of Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most, has explored Nutt's research and found many executives fail in the decision-making process by failing to generate alternative outcomes and scenarios.
Nutt collected real-world decisions where he analyzed 78 decisions made by senior managers at a range of public and private organizations: insurance companies, government departments, hospitals, advice for hire firms, etc.
According to Johnson, the most striking finding in Nutt’s research was this: Only 15 percent of the decisions he studied involved a stage where the decision-makers actively sought out a new option beyond the initial choices on the table. In a later study, he found that only 29 percent of organizational decision-makers contemplated more than one alternative.
This turns out to be a lousy strategy for decision-making.
Executives often feel compelled to “grab the first feasible choice that comes along, cram it down everyone else’s throats, point to data that supports the choice, and then battle resistance when they try to implement it,” Nutt says.
It turns out there is a strong correlation between the number of alternatives deliberated and the ultimate success of the decision itself.
Why do smart people from clever organizations rush to judgment and clinging stubbornly to one set of ideas?
Blame mythology, emotion, ego, and lack of process.
The mythology of the successful businessperson demands they succeed regardless of the stakes, often by taking rapid and decisive action. The mythology of success placed on businesspeople creates an environment where failure is not an option thus forcing decisions to be executed rapidly and cover up mistakes.
The emotion of making a swift decision makes executives feel good. Decisions made generate the high of deciding. Unfortunately, these decisions are often made without clearly exploring all outcomes and scenarios. In reality, most decisions made do not need to be quick. Executives have more time to choose than they realize. Thinking about a decision could be the best decision an executive makes.
For many executives, especially entrepreneurs and thought leaders, they come from the rugged individual mindset. People from this mindset ask for little support, need little outside motivation, and have worked solo successfully for years by just doing and executing. Shaped by a self-supported ego, such executives usually propose a self-serving idea and then quickly move to get endorsements for the self-supporting idea.
Here are some tactics to create a process to shape your next big choice:
1. Don't be too decisive: Even Barack Obama chose to sleep on his decision before he authorized the raid that killed Osama bin Laden.
2. Involve other perspectives: Retired Army General Stanley McChrystal reminds executives they have access to the answer, but the answer is often locked up in different parts of the company that executives can’t or won't interconnect.
3. Visualize the inverse of what a successful outcome looks like: Before one of the greatest endings in Michigan State - Michigan college football history in 2015, my seatmate asked, "What could go wrong?" Well, a lot. Michigan led 23-21 and just needed to punt the ball away to win. However, the Wolverines mishandled the snap, and the Spartans ran it back for a touchdown as time expired to win 27-23. Hard to imagine any Michigan coach, player, or fan envisioning such an ending. If they did, Michigan not punting the ball might have been the best outcome to ensure victory.
4: Don't ask how, ask who: Don't learn how to do something, ask the best expert on the subject what they would do. Or better yet, have the expert do it.
5. Consider three different outcomes: By making this decision, ask yourself what the possible, preferable, and probable outcomes are. Predicting one successful answer is tough - identifying three outcomes is easier.
Your decision is probably right.
DECISION MAKING DEEP DIVE
Steven Johnson: ‘Decision-making should be taught in schools’: Andrew Anthony interviews the author of Everything Bad Is Good for You in his book, and why decision-making is a creative process.
Increase the odds of being right: HBR reports if you make decisions the way most people do, says Ohio State University management professor Paul Nutt, your decision is just as likely to be a failure as it is to be a success. And 50-50 is hardly a recipe for success in business.
Your brain prefers happy endings. That’s not always smart: Sara Harrison writes people tend to focus on whether an experience ends on an up note or a sour one, even if it leads us to make bad decisions. A new study examines why.
The future of team leadership is multimodal: Robert Hooijberg and Michael Watkins write COVID-19 is accelerating a shift to hybrid work models, which requires a fundamental change in the skills team leaders need to succeed.
BRIGADOON WATCHES | VIDEOS ON DECISION MAKING
TED: Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion
TED: Stanley McChrystal: The military case for sharing knowledge
OurCrowd: Professor Daniel Kahneman: Art and science of decision making
RSA: The art of decision-making with Steven Johnson
Big Tent Ideas Festival: Rory Sutherland on defensive decision making
BRIGADOON READS | BOOKS ON DECISION MAKING
Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
How to Make Sense of Any Mess: Information Architecture for Everybody by Abby Covert
"Yes" or "No": The Guide to Better Decisions by Spencer Johnson
Leaders: Myth and Reality by Stanley McChrystal
BRIGADOON EVENTS
Brigadoon Whiteboard Call | March 5, 2021
Brigadoon Whiteboard Call | March 12, 2021
Brigadoon March Call | Customers are the Disruptors
Dr. Leigh George | CEO @ Freedom
March 17, 2021
Brigadoon April Call | Less Logic. More Magic.
Rory Sutherland - Vice Chairman @ Ogilvy UK
April 21, 2021
Brigadoon May Call | The Poetry of Leadership
Fateme Banishoeib | heARTist + Founder @ ReNewBusiness
May 19, 2021
Brigadoon June Call | Adventures with Fiat Pandas + Autogrills + Negronis
Matt Hranek | Founder + Editor @ Wm Brown Magazine
June 16, 2021
More details and passes - click here.
Thanks for supporting Brigadoon. See you next week.
-Marc
Curation + commentary by Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Curator @ Brigadoon
Brigadoon is always powerpoint free and conversation-driven for better insights and connections.
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