Brigadoon Daily
March 17, 2020
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Brigadoon Daily is sent exclusively to Brigadoon Members.
Happy St. Patrick's Day. Don't kiss anyone.
TOP FIVE
1. Macron says 'we are at war' as he orders lockdown
2. DeWine’s coronavirus response has become a national guide
3. Casinos and aviation ask Congress for emergency aid
4. Big Brother guests unaware of pandemic
5. Every sports channel is now ESPN Classic
ROSS RANT
Brigadoon Radio: Episode 32: Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - The opening phase
A recorded conversation on Sunday, March 15, 2020, between Dr. Mark Stellingworth and Marc Ross.
The episode explores: The current state of play; Novel coronavirus - what does this mean; Living with pandemics; Why the need for mass tests; Flattening the curve; Perfect black swan storm (politics, health, economics); State governments vs. Federal government; UK's herd immunity strategy; Learning from Singapore and South Korea; Mental attitude and remaining healthy.
Listen here: http://bit.ly/2UdpR9H
HT: Editing + Production: Brendan Kownacki @ Kownacki Media Holdings
It's been building for months: Brigadoon Daily first added a coronavirus story to our daily rundown on January 21, 2020, but only in the past couple of weeks has this gone from feeling like "hey it's not here news story" to something truly generationally significant.
An event that is abruptly halting much of the global economy and daily life for many millions of people regardless of status and influence.
As a communications strategist working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics, I can say with full confidence, today's marketplace is one we haven't seen in generations.
Global business executives are facing a triple Black Swan event.
A trifecta of challenges occurring simultaneously.
A political challenge, plus an economic challenge, plus a health challenge - and oh, by the way, happening on a global scale.
Over the coming weeks, if you want to just chat, organize a remote whiteboard session, arrange a scenario planning session to consider short-term and long-term scenarios, I am here.
Enjoy the ride and plan accordingly.
GLOBALIZATION
WSJ: Dow falls nearly 3,000 points as virus fears spread
Market rout comes as Trump urges only small gatherings, San Francisco and France announce lockdown.
Global response: Canada closed its borders to most foreign travelers; France is ordering citizens to stay home; and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain — reversing his earlier stance — said people should work at home and avoid unnecessary travel. The European Commission proposed a shutdown of all nonessential travel into the bloc to stem the spread, and a formal vote by member countries is set for Tuesday.
AFP: France to deploy 100,000 police to enforce coronavirus lockdown
French President Macron says 'we are at war' as he orders lockdown: DW reports, Germany and France are implementing unprecedented levels of restrictions. President Macron has urged citizens to stay at home and closed France's borders while Germany's social life grinds to a halt.
The Times: Britain in lockdown
Biggest curbs on daily life in peacetime
Change of plan to save 250,000 lives
Nearly 9m over-70s told to stay at home
Ban on family get-togethers
Germany brings in unprecedented restrictions on public life: DW reports, COVID-19 has spread to every state in Germany, and public life is set to grind to a halt. Schools, restaurants and non-essential businesses have closed while holiday travel is prohibited and borders are partially closed.
‘All is well’: Italian doctors’ lies to virus patients: Reuters reports, when the Italian doctors make calls pertaining to coronavirus, they try not to give false hope. But they know that one out of two patients in intensive care with the disease caused by coronavirus is likely to die.
WP: In an Italian city, obituaries fill the newspaper, but survivors mourn alone
The Times: NHS will buy as many ventilators as you can build, PM tells manufacturers
AFP: Chile closes borders as Latam grounds flights over pandemic
Reuters: New Zealand injects $7.3 billion stimulus in bid to save economy; promises more to come
AP: New Zealand announces economic stimulus equal to 4% of GDP
Manila lockdown cripples businesses big and small: Nikkei reports, President Duterte considering further drastic measures to control virus.
SCMP: Hong Kong to quarantine arrivals from all foreign countries
The Economist: China appears confident that its coronavirus epidemic has abated
About three-quarters of the 80,000 or so people known to have caught the virus in China are now said to have recovered from it.
Many citizens are not yet celebrating.
Gideon Rachman: How Beijing reframed the virus response narrative: Arguments for authoritarianism and against democracy will be made with increased boldness.
Pompeo conveyed 'strong US objections' to Beijing over COVID-19 accusations: Reuters reports, a war of words between China and the United States showed no signs of let up on Monday, with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a phone call with a top Chinese diplomat expressing "strong US objections" over what Washington sees as Beijing's efforts to shift blame for the spread of the coronavirus.
Trump refers to ‘Chinese virus’ as Pompeo asks Beijing to stop shifting blame: SCMP reports, the secretary of state tells Chinese diplomat ‘this is not the time for disinformation’ after officials spread a conspiracy theory that US troops took virus to China.
How ugly could it get? Trump faces echoes of 1929 in coronavirus crisis. Politico reports, forecasters see historic job losses and deep economic pain on the horizon — but with a sharp rebound, if Congress steps up. https://politi.co/38X7sUb
Pankaj Mishra: Get ready, a bigger disruption is coming: The Covid-19 pandemic reflects a systemic crisis akin to the seminal crashes of the 20th century. https://bloom.bg/3d5BA2U
FT: G7 vows ‘whatever is necessary’ to support global economy
G-7 leaders vow to share best intelligence on coronavirus: Nikkei reports, health and finance ministers to meet weekly online for coordinating response.
Chatham House: Coronavirus: Global response urgently needed: This pandemic is not just a global medical and economic emergency. It could also prove a decisive make-or-break point for today’s system of global political and economic cooperation. This system was built up painstakingly after 1945 as a response to the beggar-thy-neighbour economic policies of the 1930s which led to the Second World War. But it has been seriously weakened recently as the US and China have entered a more overt phase of strategic competition, and as they and a number of the other most important global and regional players have pursued their narrowly defined self-interest. http://bit.ly/2TVjqcz
AP: US officials: Foreign disinformation is stoking virus fears
On Sunday, federal officials began confronting what they said was a deliberate effort by a foreign entity to sow fears of a nationwide quarantine amid the virus outbreak. Agencies took coordinated action Sunday evening to deny that any such plans were put in place, as they tried to calm a nation already on edge by disruptions to daily life caused by the virus.
Plague of locusts set to descend upon Middle East in time for Passover: Times of Israel reports, 'extremely alarming' desert locust swarms forming in Horn of Africa — but will skip Holy Land.
Yoga becomes a required class: Next month, Nepal will become the first country to make the physical, mental and spiritual practices mandatory in schools nationwide. Along with math, science, and English, the curriculum will include the history of yogic thought and lessons on Ayurveda and naturopathy, a kind of alternative medicine that promotes self-healing.
Electric scooters to get green light to go on Britain's public roads: Guardian reports, legalization of e-scooters part of government’s wider plan for ‘transport revolution.’
Clara Ferreira Marques: Oil war may revive China's yuan ambitions: Beijing can use its leverage as the biggest importer to insist on paying for crude in its own currency.
Russian court clears way for Putin to stay in power: DW reports, the changes to Russia's constitution, spearheaded by President Vladimir Putin, have been approved by the country's Constitutional Court. The reform would allow Putin to "reset" his terms and run for president again.
DISRUPTION
Leading technological change: Lessons from Rear Admiral Moffett http://bit.ly/39MmqNN
To efficiently implement or operationalize their vision, leaders must accept risk. In the interwar period, Moffett and Bauer established a culture of innovation where “failure was tolerated so long as it yielded productive results and precise information and accurate analyses about system performance.”
Could our energy come from giant seaweed farms in the ocean? A US agency is funding projects to help create a bioenergy industry based on macroalgae. http://bit.ly/3d312Gd
BRIGADOON EVENTS
Brigadoon Salon Dinner + Tour | Detroit
October 1-2, 2020
Detroit, Michigan
Brigadoon Remote | Scotland
November 9-13, 2020
Fife, Scotland
POLITICS
“People are talking about July, August. ... Could be longer than that.” -- President Trump
Ten people, max: That’s the new national guideline for the safe size of groups during the coronavirus outbreak, Trump and US health officials said at a briefing.
"In conjunction with the State Department, the CDC has issued a Risk Assessment Level 2 travel advisory for the rest of the world – including the United States."
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s coronavirus response has become a national guide to the crisis: WP reports, when Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced a ban on spectators at the Arnold Classic, a juggernaut of a sports festival that brings tens of millions in revenue, the move seemed radical. It was March 3, and the state, after all, had not even had a single confirmed case of the novel coronavirus. But within days, large-capacity events were being canceled nationwide. A week later, DeWine recommended that his state’s colleges suspend in-person classes. Across the country, they soon did. He then closed Ohio’s public schools. Other states followed.
Ohio will order polls closed Tuesday amid ‘health emergency’ from coronavirus, governor says: WP reports, the decision late Monday came after a state judge rejected an effort to temporarily delay the primary, saying that postponement would “set a terrible precedent.”
LAT: California Legislature to consider spending $1 billion for coronavirus response
WSJ: Coronavirus closes school for nearly 30 million children in US
WP: After governors take firm steps, Trump emerges with a new tone
Reuters: US Senator Schumer wants at least $750 bln to combat coronavirus, help economy
Trump warns of possible recession, businesses urge 'aggressive' action: DW reports, Trump said the nation's economy "may be" heading into recession hours after the US Chamber of Commerce warned that the impact of the pandemic could be devastating. The group urged a tax break.
Liam Denning: Trump’s energy dominance dream submits to reality: Frackers’ call for a bailout exposes the weakness of this psychological balm. https://bloom.bg/3aYP6U4
Before Trump’s inauguration, a warning: ‘The worst influenza pandemic since 1918': Politico reports, in a tabletop exercise days before an untested new president took power, officials briefed the incoming administration on a scenario remarkably like the one he faces now.
@ChrisLu44: There were 3 role-playing scenarios: hurricane, pandemic and cyber incident. Obama team discussed need to anticipate requirements, stay ahead of challenges and provide resources quickly. The goal was to acquaint Trump officials with how to coordinate around major incidents.
The Atlantic: A frontline physician speaks out on the coronavirus: “I’ve been walking around for the last week seeing what’s coming and feeling somehow unable to share that clearly and effectively.” http://bit.ly/2xJP4RL
MR: Coming to the US:
SMBs grants + loans to keep cos open and staff on payroll
Bulletproof sick leave policies
Liquidity access for small business
Mortgage deferments
Tax deferments
Rent deferments
Auto loan deferments
Credit card payments delayed
Utilities not shutting off services
USG picking winners and losers of the global economy
Infrastructure building
TSA-like equipment + processes for entering stadiums, office buildings, airports, hospitals
Rates at 0 for 2-3 years
Learning from Asia and their SARS experience
LAT: US economy is now in recession, UCLA Anderson Forecast says
Bye-bye Bernie: Politico reports, according to our experts, Bernie Sanders may not have won the debate or the 2020 Democratic primary. But he changed his party, and Joe Biden, for the better.
COMMERCE
Universal Pictures is making some of its current film releases available on demand starting this week. That includes The Invisible Man and The Hunt, which will be available on Apple, Amazon and other on demand services starting Friday for $19.99.
@kaitlancollins: Starting tomorrow, Dollar General is “strongly encouraging that the first hour of operations each day be dedicated solely for the shopping needs of senior customers,” given they who most vulnerable to coronavirus, the company says.
The aviation industry may not fully recover from the effects of the pandemic: The Economist reports, on March 5th the International Air Transport Association (IATA), a trade group, projected a possible hit to worldwide revenues of up to $113bn this year. That is one-fifth of last year’s overall revenues and four times higher than IATA estimated in February, when the coronavirus was still believed to be a Chinese problem rather than a global one.
Airlines seek $50 billion in aid from government: WSJ reports, US carriers are in talks with the government to obtain financial assistance under a proposal that would be more than three times the size of the industry’s bailout after the Sept. 11 attacks.
The Times: Most global airlines ‘will be bankrupt in ten weeks’
WP: Casinos ask Congress for emergency aid as coronavirus toll sweeps industry
The American Gaming Association issued a statement to The Washington Post on Monday, saying that with the $260 billion industry at a "near standstill," additional funds are needed to support casino companies and their employees.
A frantic few days for restaurants is only the beginning: NYT reports, however long the closings across the country last, governments need to move fast if the industry is ever going to come back.
Amazon adding 100,000 warehouse and delivery workers amid shutdowns: WSJ reports, Amazon.com plans to hire an additional 100,000 employees in the U.S., as people are turning to online deliveries at a breakneck pace to help contain the spread of the new coronavirus.
Bloomberg: UPS, FedEx ease signature rules to protect against virus
Tencent Holdings will boost mid-career hires by more than 25% this year to meet demand linked to telecommuting necessitated by the novel coronavirus outbreak.
AB InBev draws down entire $9bn loan facility: FT reports, world’s largest brewer joins growing list of companies rushing to secure cash.
Cinemas across US close for pandemic: AP reports, Regal Cinema’s the nation’s second-largest theater chain, said Monday that would close all cinemas beginning Tuesday. AMC Theaters, the largest theater circuit, didn’t immediately respond to messages. Earlier in the day, AMC said it would limit audiences to less than 50 people for every screening to facilitate social distancing.
Chesapeake hires advisers to look at $9bn debt pile: FT reports, shale energy pioneer suffers from collapse in oil and weak gas prices.
Toilet maker Toto looks to become a global fixture: Nikkei reports, bidet purveyor's mix of craft and technology has been slow to catch on outside Japan.
Chinese carmakers snap up talent from Germany's fading Opel: Nikkei reports, Geely and Chery develop engineering hubs close to former GM unit's headquarters.
Reuters: Impossible Foods raises $500 million at nearly $4 billion valuation: source
ADVOCACY 2.0 + COMMUNICATIONS
Americans are projected to watch as much as 60% more television during coronavirus-related shutdowns, according to an analysis from Nielsen that used data from recent weather-related shutdowns. https://nytv.to/pEM7m
CULTURE
"Saturday Night Live" will not be live from New York anytime soon. The show was scheduled to return from hiatus on March 28, but will not resume production until further notice. It's unclear if the show will return since there were only six episodes left this season, the show's 45th on air.
Guardian: No news is good news: Big Brother guests unaware of pandemic
Information blackout only lifted in certain events like family illness, say producers.
So we’re working from home. Can the internet handle it? NYT reports, with millions of people working and learning from home during the pandemic, internet networks are set to be strained to the hilt.
AFP: Vogue's Anna Wintour postpones Met Gala, endorses Biden
Some ask a taboo question: Is America overreacting to coronavirus? NYT reports, with “social distancing” now widely adopted nationwide, a small group of contrarians urge a more careful weighing of the harm as well as the benefits of such policies.
How China's "Bat Woman" hunted down viruses from SARS to the new coronavirus: Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out there. http://bit.ly/2x6IrIH
On a roll: The psychology behind toilet paper panic http://bit.ly/2U83hPU
MOTIVATION
A psychologist's science-based tips for emotional resilience during the coronavirus crisis http://bit.ly/2TWntFJ
SPORT
Tokyo Games: The IOC will meet Tuesday with every national Olympic committee and the summer sports’ governing federations to discuss the growing Tokyo Games qualifying crisis.
AP: MLB delays opening day to mid-May at earliest due to virus
CBS Boston: Final (?) Tom Brady update: Choices down to Patriots and Buccaneers
NFL 2020 season? In the first indication that the coronavirus outbreak could jeopardize part of the NFL’s season, the league distributed talking points to teams about season ticket refunds if games are canceled, SBJ’s Ben Fischer has learned.
The NFL canceled all public aspects of the April 23-25 Draft.
Run for the Roses: The 146th running of The Kentucky Derby will be postponed until the first Saturday in September, multiple sources told WDRB News, the latest sporting event to be affected by the coronavirus pandemic.
Keeneland Race Course canceled its spring meet.
When coronavirus turns every sports channel into ESPN Classic: NYT reports, replays of games that already happened. Documentaries that you might have missed. Yipes, no wonder the few dozen sports-only channels have a problem.
