Brigadoon Weekend | February 12, 2022

Brigadoon Weekend | No. 5 | February 12, 2022

Brigadoon Weekend curates the top ten emerging issues from the week shaping commerce + culture.

ONE

How to recover $3.6 billion in stolen bitcoin.

According to Time Magzine, federal law enforcement and prosecutors revealed a six-year chess match to find the culprits behind the theft of 119,754 Bitcoin from the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex.

Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan were arrested on charges they laundered a portion of the nearly 120,000 bitcoins stolen from Bitfinex in 2016.

“The defendants are sophisticated cybercriminals and money launderers who present a serious risk of flight,” prosecutors said. While most of the stolen funds have been seized, Morgan and Lichtenstein control several other virtual currency addresses that hold about 7,506 Bitcoin, valued at more than $328 million, the government says.

Bloomberg reports that none of this could have happened 20 years ago. Or 10. Or maybe even five. The couple’s audacious plan, as laid out by federal authorities, as well as the brazen lifestyle that the plan supposedly afforded, seemed tailored to these times.

The anatomy of the alleged money laundering scheme is a cautionary tale in an era of rapid blockchain ascendancy.

A couple allegedly used a “laundry list” of technical measures to cover their tracks.

The measures didn’t work.

“The problem with laundering cryptocurrency is if you made a mistake five years ago, that’s still on the blockchain for everyone to see.” -- Tom Robinson, a co-founder of the Blockchain analytics company Elliptic

Look for crypto supporters to make the case that a blockchain can be a powerful tool for investigating financial crime.

TWO

A use case for crypto, finally.

Kevin Roose writes that one of crypto's superpowers is the ability to kick-start projects by providing an incentive for investors and supporters to get in on the ground floor.

Adding tokens to the investment mix solves the "cold start problem."

As every entrepreneur knows, attracting the first users to a new product or service is a challenge from a potential customer not knowing about the product or service currently has limited network effects.

Roose shared insights on how Helium, a wireless network powered by cryptocurrency, displays a practical promise of decentralized services.

Roose writes that Helium exists in a regulatory gray area like many crypto projects, and users could be in for a shock if Washington decides to crackdown.

Federal regulators have suggested that lots of crypto tokens may qualify as securities, which could make Helium hot spot owners subject to all kinds of thorny securities laws.

Putting a Helium hot spot in your house might also technically violate your internet service provider's terms of service since it involves reselling a portion of your bandwidth.

Look for more crypto projects to be "job to done" solutions that may not be a lottery ticket to riches but provide a helpful answer and advance adoption by distributing tokens to users and supporters.

THREE

Team Biden keeps leaking Russia intel.

The US national security establishment believes that the information war is a must-win battleground.

The West is executing a productive "flood the zone" communications strategy.

Politico reports the Biden administration has gone to unusual lengths to publicly share intelligence about Russia's threat to Ukraine, using targeted media leaks and other methods to warn the world of everything from the specifics of Moscow's troop build-up to an alleged Kremlin plot to fake an attack that justifies an invasion.

The way Team Biden has executed their communications has been a masterclass.

Team Putin appears unprepared for this high-bandwidth output and use of high-low media channels where journalists have shared timely leaks and compelling military scenarios.

Look for increased use of information tools and tactics by the US national security establishment as they seek to prevent kinetic military action across Eastern Europe.

FOUR

Peter Thiel picks politics over pokes.

Facebook describes pokes as a way to say hello or get your friend's attention.

Now Peter Thiel wants to get Washington's attention.

One of the most successful Silicon Valley investors and entrepreneurs of the last two decades, billionaire tech investor and PayPal Co-founder Peter Thiel, announced he would step down from the board of Facebook owner Meta.

Thiel, an early Facebook investor and close confidante of CEO Mark Zuckerberg, will not stand for re-election to the board at the company's 2022 annual stockholders' meeting.

As Richard Waters writes, Thiel's backing for Donald Trump in 2016 left many in liberal-leaning Silicon Valley aghast and, with a massive personal fortune, has fuelled expectation that he is about to emerge as a powerful new force in rightwing politics.

The departure allows Thiel more freedom to expand his political influence while protecting Meta from any backlash.

Look for Peter Thiel to focus on Election 2022 as part of a strategy to position himself for a top-flight position in a future Trump or Republican administration.

FIVE

Queen Camilla is on deck.

Queen Elizabeth II offered her support to have the Duchess of Cornwall become Queen Camilla — using a special Platinum Jubilee message to make a significant decision in shaping the future of the British monarchy.

"Camilla will be known as Queen Consort as she continues her own loyal service."

The Queen is Queen Regnant, a female monarch equivalent in rank and title to a king who reigns in her own right. A Queen Consort is the wife of a reigning king.

The announcement seemed to resolve a sensitive issue for Camilla, the second wife of Prince Charles, who is Elizabeth's eldest son and the heir to the throne.

Look for this announcement to set an easier transition when Charles ascends to the throne.

SIX

Protecting your brand in the NFT marketplace.

Nike is the latest company to file suit over NFTs as brands get serious about the marketplace.

Fortune reports the shoe and apparel company filed a lawsuit last week against Detroit-based sneaker and apparel exchange StockX, which Nike has accused of selling NFTs that infringe on its trademarks.

A complaint filed by Nike in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York alleges that StockX has been selling NFTs that use Nike's trademarks without its authorization or approval.

"Companies are going to be on the lookout to make sure that nobody is out there creating NFTs in this space that are violating their rights and their intellectual property rights." -- Michael Rueda, a lawyer and head of the US sports and entertainment group at the London-based law firm Withers

Look for more brands taking this proactive legal approach to avoid being responsible if fraudulent brand versions appear in digital marketplaces as NFTs.

SEVEN

Salesforce is all-in on an employee's health and wellness.

Salesforce is making a wellness retreat for workers with the launch of the Trailblazer Ranch.

This wellness ranch will be the tech company's new corporate ethos in an ever-increasing work-from-home business environment.

The Wall Street Journal reports the majority of Salesforce's employees will work in a hybrid model once the pandemic is over, coming into the office between one and three days a week.

Salesforce plans to use the property to onboard new hires and conduct off-site team meetings for social bonding and leadership training.

Stays at Salesforce's retreat will combine work and training with wellness activities such as yoga and hiking.

Wellness Retreat > Country Club

Look for more companies to commit to an employee's health and wellness as a tool to recruit and retain talent.

EIGHT

Esports to be included as a pilot event at Commonwealth Games.

BBC reports that the inaugural Commonwealth Esports Championships will have separate branding, medals, and organization at this year's event.

But there is hope within the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) that esports could become a part of the full program by the 2026 Games.

"Esports is continuing to grow dramatically in terms of popularity and participation, particularly amongst young people, and we are continuing to look at ways to explore how it can align with the Commonwealth Sports Movement." -- CGF president Dame Louise Martin.

There will be 29.6 million monthly esports viewers in the US this year, per Insider Intelligence estimates.

Look for competitive video games to continue to reach into popular culture and international sporting championships.

NINE

Kelly Slater wins Billabong Pro Pipeline in Hawai'i.

Days before he turned 50, Kelly Slater won Pipeline, an event he first won 30 years ago.

Slater defeated a rider less than half his age to capture one of the sport's iconic events, the Billabong Pro Pipeline, near the renowned reef off of Oahu.

ESPN reports Slater was the youngest world champion when he captured the title at 20. He was also the oldest when he won it at 39. He just finished his last contest in his 40s with a win too.

He has become a household name and captured 11 world championships. His win over the weekend was his eighth World Surf League Championship Tour victory on the Banzai. It also marked his 56th overall tour win.

Look for Slater's Pipeline win as one of 2022's most significant sports accomplishments.

TEN

Conquering injury is a must for Olympic skiers.

A study financed by the International Ski Federation and published in 2021 estimated that a third of all Alpine skiers are injured during each World Cup season.

According to the organization’s Injury Surveillance System, 41% of injuries by World Cup skiers between 2003 and 2019 sidelined them for 28 days or longer.

Of 1,083 injuries the system tracked, 447 were to knees, by far the most-damaged body part. Hands also took a beating (105 injuries), as did heads (102 injuries).

Look for a different kind of athlete who commits to race down a mountain where the margin between a personal best and disaster can be as narrow as the razor-sharp edges of skis.

Brigadoon Weekend | February 5, 2022

Brigadoon Weekend | No. 4 | February 5, 2022

Brigadoon Weekend curates the top ten emerging issues from the week shaping commerce + culture.

ONE

Should the Supreme Court only be covered in ivy?

Eight of the nine current members of the US Supreme Court went to law school at either Harvard or Yale, with a 4-4 split between Harvard and Yale law graduates.

Retiring Justice Stephen Breyer attended Harvard, as did Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Elena Kagan and Neil Gorsuch.

Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh attended Yale.

The court's newest member, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, is the outlier. Barrett is a graduate of Notre Dame's law school.

With a prized opening on the court, Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) are making the case that it would be good if the person named to the opening doesn't have an Ivy League degree.

With the Biden-Harris administration being the first POTUS + VPOTUS Democrat team without an Ivy League degree since 1984, look for the support of the political talking point that diversity of educational background would benefit the nation's highest court.

TWO

Meta's market plunge was the largest single-day loss ever by a US company.

At the heart of the nosedive this week are three things:

+ A $3.3 billion loss trying to make its metaverse ambitions a reality.

+ A slowdown in advertising revenue.

+ The platform's first-ever decline inactive users.

This triumvirate is a landmark event in social media history.

From Apple's blocking ad tracking on its devices to people spending more time watching videos on TikTok, the company is now facing an unprecedented level of competition.

But what is most striking about the buzz around the metaverse is that everyone claims to be building it, but no one knows what it really will be or what it should look like—and whether people will ever want to use it.

With Meta going all-in on the metaverse, this is a problem.

Of the more than 3,000 open jobs listed on Meta's website, more than 24 percent are for augmented or virtual reality roles.

Wall Street is about the future and will fund it if it believes you can reach the future.

Can Zuckerberg convince investors that his version is the internet's future? If so, they will be more excited about how he spent nearly $10 billion during the past year to build it.

Look for more market disbelief on Meta's future. When your stock drops 25%, it is clear the market is telling you it doesn't think you can build a second massive, world-changing business from scratch.

THREE

How did we get to the age of the TikTok tabloid?

Jenna Drenten, an associate professor of marketing @ Loyola University Chicago, sees TikTok as an outgrowth of the dynamics of social surveillance: using digital technologies to keep a close watch on one another while producing online content in anticipation of being watched.

"In social surveillance, everyone online is both a guard and a prisoner, constantly consuming online content and producing content for others to see."

In a TNW post, Drenten asks: "Who manages the public images of people who didn't choose to become public figures?"

It would be easy to say they should stay off TikTok. But it's not that simple.

Social surveillance ensures that nearly everyone, regardless of permission or participation, has the potential to become headline news – beholden to the TikTok tabloid taste-makers.

Look for a GDPR-like solution that seeks to reign in the peril of publicity and the dark side of public shaming and internet sleuthing.

FOUR

Spotify's transition from music streamer to media producer has been problematic.

Last week, the public firestorm over Spotify's relationship with podcaster Joe Rogan reached DEFCON 2.

Rogan, who gets millions of dollars to broadcast exclusively on Spotify's platform, said his show has grown "out of control" and pledged to be more balanced and informed about controversial topics and guests.

"If I pissed you off, I'm sorry."

Three years ago, Spotify began to stake its future on bringing in more listeners and advertising dollars with exclusive licensing deals for podcasts with prominent figures, including Rogan, Michelle Obama, and Prince Harry.

Spotify has embraced the more promising direction as a publisher and producer of podcasts.

Prices for Spotify ads are generally high compared with run-of-the-mill ads on other social media platforms.

Less popular pods on Spotify sell in the $20-per-1,000-listeners range, but more popular pods can go into the $75 territory.

A podcast player is now less about being a search engine and more about being a creator and publisher of that content.

Spotify needs pods, not music.

Look for Spotify to embrace podcasts even more coupled with a live audio strategy and an eye on the future of NFTs, tokens, and Web3.

FIVE

Cable news networks have a severe ratings problem.

Cable news channels in 2020 enjoyed a surge in viewership. But daily cable news viewership fell off a cliff in 2021.

Viewership dropped across all major cable news channels in 2021 compared to 2020:

Fox Business: -47.5%
CNN: -40.5%
Fox News: -34.6%
MSNBC: -29.7%
CNBC: -19.0%

And it is not just cable news seeing a drop.

Citing Comscore data, the AP noted that the number of unique visitors at The Washington Post's website dropped by 44 percent in November 2021 compared to the previous year, around the 2020 election, while it dropped by 34 percent at The New York Times.

A combination of news burnout and numerous social media news delivery options is why.

Look for cable news to seek other revenue opportunities, including investing in streaming services and scripted entertainment like travel and better-living programming.

SIX

Andreessen Horowitz seeks access to the Bored Ape Yacht Club.

Andreessen Horowitz is in advanced talks to lead a significant funding round for Yuga Labs, the company behind the NFT project Bored Ape Yacht Club.

Yuga Labs generates revenue via direct sales of its Apes or other NFTs, including recent Mutants and Kennel drops, plus residual revenue when those NFTs are resold on the blockchain.

A deal would mark the first institutional investment into Yuga and place the company at the forefront of the frothy but lucrative market for crypto art less than one year after debuting the BASIC collection.

Andreessen Horowitz is a significant shareholder in cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and the NFT exchange OpenSea and plans to raise $4.5bn for a new set of crypto funds.

Look for Andreessen Horowitz to continue placing big bets on NFT coupled with an acceleration of creators monetizing their fans directly and spending less on customer acquisition.

SEVEN

Coachella is selling lifetime festival passes for the first time — but you have to buy an NFT.

The music festival launched an NFT marketplace built by FTX US, with three collections of NFTs going on sale.

Plus, in an attempt to get ahead of anticipated backlash, FTX has also purchased 100,000 tons of carbon offsets.

"Coachella Collectibles NFTs are a first of its kind opportunity to own lifetime festival passes, unlock unique on-site experiences, physical items, and digital collectibles. Embrace new technology to connect and discover."

The ten one-of-a-kind NFT keys will grant lifetime access to Coachella - one festival weekend every April and Coachella produced virtual experiences forever.

The auction for the collection began February 4 with a recent bid at press time of $55,000.00

Look for other music festivals and entertainment venues to use NFTs and blockchains as a ticketing tool and attach physical products and services to digital goods.

EIGHT

Wyoming and Arizona are considering taking digital currency.

Lawmakers in Wyoming and Arizona have introduced proposals to accept tax payments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Under the Arizona proposal, the state would recognize the most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, as legal tender. The Wyoming proposal, which is not limited to any specific cryptocurrency, would apply only to sales and use taxes.

Both proposals face potential legal and political hurdles.

Critics of privately issued and open-source cryptocurrencies argue that if they displace national currencies, they will undermine the ability of federal governments and central banks to regulate the economy effectively.

Look for an interesting mix of stakeholders seeking to shape the future of digital money - from big retailers to veterans of the commercial banking industry.

NINE

Japanese company joins march back to the Moon.

Japanese company ispace aims to place a lander with two small rovers on the lunar surface by the end of the year.

If all goes to plan, ispace will accomplish the first intact landing by a Japanese spacecraft on the Moon.

2022 will be a busy year on the Moon with landings and explorations that could see humans get back to the lunar surface in the coming years.

Nations and private companies have set their sights on the Moon for its potential to serve as a staging ground for spacecraft and other technologies that could be used for future missions to Mars.

Look for more than ten moon landings in the coming years that, in the short-term, visualize mining the Moon with robots for resources like iron and silicon that could be returned to Earth or used to expand structures on the lunar surface.

TEN

Germany's secret bobsled weapon.

For the past 18 months, Germany's bobsled team has been plotting their assault on the Beijing medals table in a nondescript office building north of Munich.

Together with BMW, they have created a simulator modeled on motor racing technology that they hope will give them an edge over their rivals at the Winter Olympics.

Germany is a force in bobsled, having won all three gold medals at the 2018 Winter Olympics and investing large sums of money in the sport.

The Beijing Olympic course is mainly unknown compared to other tracks around the world.

Look for the German bobsled team to enjoy a considerable advantage due to the simulator and understanding of the Beijing track better than their competitors.

Brigadoon Weekend | January 29, 2022

Brigadoon Weekend | No. 3 | January 29, 2022

Curating the top ten emerging issues from the week shaping commerce + culture

ONE

Burkina Faso army deposes president in West Africa's latest coup.

NYT reports the morning after the coup in Burkina Faso, a crowd of revelers celebrating the military takeover in the dusty central plaza of the capital had two messages for the outside world: No to France, and yes to Russia.

"No, we don't want no more France. We are here because we want the defense of Russia. France hasn't done anything that gives us success."

The sudden clamor for Moscow's help was a further sign of how Islamist violence across the Sahel, a vast region south of the Sahara, is upending old alliances and eroding pro-Western, if often weak, democratic political orders.

This is the third successful military coup in West Africa eight months after juntas took power in Guinea and neighboring Mali last year.

Look for the Russian private security company Wagner, which has close links to the Kremlin, to increase its activities and take advantage of growing anti-French sentiment in West Africa.

TWO

In China the "little giants" are on the rise.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has named 4,762 little giants since 2019, many in semiconductors, machinery, and pharmaceutical industries.

The designation typically comes with lucrative incentives from the central government or provincial authorities, including tax cuts, generous loans, and favorable talent acquisition policies.

"What the country is trying to promote is more hardcore technology. In that sense, this is more in line with what they are trying to promote — things that make China more competitive." -- Yipin Ng, founding partner of Yunqi Partners

Venture investments in China hit a record last year despite the crackdown. The value of deals rose about 50% in 2021 to $130.6 billion, according to the research firm Preqin.

Look for China to continue to dampen Alibaba and ByteDance and push investments to focus on the government's priorities - think less computer engineering power for TikTok and more for biotechnology.

THREE

Milan gives abandoned World Expo buildings a Silicon Valley-style reboot.

Six years after the expo, a makeover of the sprawling site is just getting started.

Milan is taking cues from Silicon Valley to transform an area more than twice the size of the Vatican into a sustainable, post-pandemic technology center.

The $5.1 billion redevelopment of one of Europe's biggest vacant lots includes research labs, a startup accelerator, and a science campus.

The MIND Milano Innovation District will have housing and working space for 60,000 people, including accommodation for 3,000 students. The University of Milan will complete a new science campus with room for 18,000 students and 1,000 lecturers and researchers in 2025.

Italy ranks only 12th for venture capital investments in Europe, with 3.6 billion euros raised in the last five years, according to Dealroom.

Look for Milan to compete against other cities like London, Paris, and Amsterdam, as Europe seeks to better rival the US and China in developing new technology.

FOUR

The rise of the crypto mayors.

Maimi Mayor Francis Suarez now styles himself as a kind of crypto diplomat.

After taking over this month as president of the US Conference of Mayors, he urged members to sign a "crypto compact" calling on the federal government to eschew overly aggressive regulation of the industry.

Suarez's vice chair at the Conference of Mayors is a fellow crypto enthusiast.

Hillary Schieve, in her second term as the mayor of Reno, NV, announced plans to turn a famous whale sculpture in downtown Reno into an NFT.

Look for mayors to drive crypto boosterism with its bipartisan appeal among anti-government conservatives and socially liberal tech moguls.

FIVE

Can Ford compete with Tesla in the EV market?

Until now, most consumer EVs have been sedans, like Tesla's Model 3. But sedans are a dying segment of the overall US car market.

Ford has pledged that by 2030 forty percent of its global sales will be EVs.

According to the International Energy Agency, only two percent of the vehicles sold in the US in 2020 were EVs., far behind EV adoption rates in China and Europe. In Norway, seventy-five percent of new car sales in 2020 were EVs.

A new offering from Ford gives businesses a bigger incentive to go electric with their commercial fleets. Ford commands 45% of the US market for commercial vehicles and is a big player in Europe too.

Look for Ford's commercial fleet business to lead the company into the electric vehicle era.

SIX

Has the appetite for plant-based meat already peaked?

According to data provider SPINS, after a 46 percent rise in 2020 on the back of soaring demand at the start of the pandemic, sales in plant-based meat in the US in 2021 fell 0.5 percent.

The ebbing of the sales surge is down to products that fail to meet taste expectations.

"There are a lot of people that have moved to plant-based because of sustainability issues, but yet they aren't really satisfied with what's out there." -- Neil Rankin - Creative Director @ Symplicity Foods

Analysts also blame a long list of ingredients with unfamiliar names for making the product look like highly processed food and acting as a barrier to repeat purchases.

Despite sales growth falling in the US and UK, an extra $3bn was invested into the sector in 2021.

Look for industry consolidation leading to improved efficiencies, stronger players, and better products, fuelling renewed growth.

SEVEN

What Cameo knows about celebrity.

In 2019, 30,000 celebrities on the platform recorded 350,000 videos. In 2020, 40,000 recorded more than a million videos. In 2021 the number of celebrities surpassed 50,000.

To get on the platform, you must be deemed a "person of note" by Cameo, usually meaning you have about 25,000 followers on Instagram.

"The distance between the fan and celebrity is collapsed with Cameo because the technology is so slimline that it's almost imperceptible." -- Greg Jenner - Author @ Dead Famous: An Unexpected History of Celebrity from Bronze Age to Silver Screen

The financial incentive to join Cameo for celebs is crucial because many people are famous but not rich today.

Look for digital media to create more avenues for celebrity, but opportunities to make money in entertainment have not grown at a commensurate rate.

EIGHT

Gaming is the new Big Tech battleground.

Microsoft's audacious $75bn move on games publisher Activision Blizzard has detonated a bomb under the games industry.

"Fifteen years ago, you had about 200m gamers in the world, and today you've got about 2.7bn. It's become the biggest form of media." -- Neil Campling - Tech Analyst @ Mirabaud Securities

The purchase price represented only 3 percent of Microsoft's value and less than its latest annual operating cash flow.

The deal will face intense scrutiny by regulators that could take 18 months — and with both Google and Facebook on the receiving end of antitrust complaints from the US government.

Tencent, which leads the industry with gaming revenue in 2020 of $30.6bn, is widely seen as a model for the future of gaming in other parts of the world.

Look for the deal to add significantly to forces that have already been reshaping the sector in recent years and lead to the creation of ever-larger gaming empires.

NINE

Can CNN's hiring spree get people to pay for streaming news?

The plan to start CNN+, expected to go live by late March, is more than three years after Fox News launched Fox Nation.

CNN's traditional broadcast viewership has dropped significantly from a year ago.

CNN+ will mix hard news with a heavy dose of lifestyle coverage and tips on baking a pear cobbler.

"The silver lining beyond today's toughest headlines"

Look for news to find a way to stream as streaming has supplanted cable as television's primary home delivery system.

The company is placing a significant financial bet on CNN+, budgeting for 500 additional employees, including producers, reporters, engineers, and programmers.

"What we're building at CNN+ is not a side hustle." -- Andrew Morse - Chief Digital Officer @ CNN

TEN

Mammoth Mountain has revolutionized the development of world-class snowboarders.

The resort's forward-thinking culture and idyllic environment have produced some of Team USA's best snowboarders and freeskiers through its celebrated Mammoth Mountain Ski and Snowboard Team.

"I owe my whole career to the Mammoth team." -- Tessa Maud - 2022 US Olympic Snowboard Team + Snowboard Rookie Halfpipe

With its bright blue sky, big mountain, and great snow on meticulously maintained parks, Mammoth is one of the most popular snow resorts in the country and Team USA's official training venue for snowboarding and freeskiing.

All six women named to the US snowboard team for the 2021-22 season came from Mammoth.

Look for Mammoth's dominance in action during the women's halfpipe at the Beijing Winter Games.

Brigadoon Weekend | January 22, 2022

Brigadoon Weekend | No. 2 | January 22, 2022

Curating the top ten emerging issues from the week shaping commerce + culture

ONE

It is time for blockchains to move from the wild west badlands.

Last year, VCs backed about 460 blockchain projects, spending nearly $12.75 billion, up from 155 deals worth $2.75 billion in 2020, per Pitchbook data.

Plus the venture arms of Coinbase and FTX are now some of the biggest dealmakers.

Such moves are only compounding concerns about corporate concentration of blockchains among lawmakers and regulators.

Big Tech and VCs increasingly control the decentralized entities said to democratize Web3 for the general public.

"While cryptocurrency industry insiders promote the 'democratized' benefits of digital assets, in truth, crypto concentrations of money and power match or surpass those in traditional financial markets." -- Alexis Goldstein - Policy Director @ Open Markets

Look for the crypto industry to make moves beyond the tech's possibilities to use cases where blockchains can be tools for good and not just tools for speculation and profit.

TWO

Non-traditional routes of information for investing are increasing.

More than half of American Generation Z and millennial investors said they had made investment decisions due to information they saw on social media, according to a survey by US financial app M1 Financial.

An October survey by consumer research firm Cardify found that mainstream celebrities and executives are the number one source of information for cryptocurrency holders. Almost 60 percent of survey respondents turned to these high-profile individuals for information on cryptocurrencies more than half the time.

"More and more retail investors . . . are [trading] based on very non-traditional routes of information, whether it's on Reddit or on Instagram." -- Charles Whitehead - Professor @ Cornell Law School

Look for increased regulation of crypto products with SEC Chair Gary Gensler urging Congress to give his agency additional powers to protect investors.

THREE

Retailing in the metaverse.

The metaverse will redefine brand engagement, product discovery, and online conversions, with NFTs as the stepping stone.

NFTs are the most accessible point of entry for the metaverse, with their potential extending to new retail formats and shopping incentives. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, global metaverse revenue will reach $800 billion in 2024 vs. about $500 billion in 2020.

"Gen Alpha, currently ages 0-12, will be the first generation to grow up in the metaverse. They will prefer digital goods to physical goods." -- Cassandra Napoli - Senior Strategist @ WGSN Insight

Look for brands and retailers to use the metaverse for new revenue growth and communications experimentation, with a keen focus on Gen Alpha.

FOUR

Microsoft cites the metaverse as a reason for buying Activision Blizzard.

Microsoft sees the Activision Blizzard acquisition as the foundation for "building blocks for the metaverse."

The metaverse is the convergence of two ideas that have been around for many years: virtual reality and digital second life.

In November 2021, Microsoft outlined plans to introduce the 250m users of its Teams software to the more immersive metaverse.

Microsoft said that in the first half of 2022, Teams users would be able to start appearing as avatars in the online meetings they already attend.

With Activision Blizzard's 400 million monthly users combined with the 250m people who use Teams at least once a month, Microsoft's reach is 92x more extensive than the 7m paying users Facebook has for its existing workplace communications software.

Look for tech companies to race to be the first to bring the technology to the office as this is the best chance to create digital alter-egos that people are likely to carry with them in their wider working lives.

FIVE

Four tech giants dominate the internet's critical cable infrastructure.

By 2024, MSFT, GOOGL, FB, and AMZN collectively expect to have an ownership stake in more than 30 long-distance undersea cables, each up to thousands of miles long, connecting every continent on the globe save Antarctica.

Combined, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon poured more than $90 billion into capital expenditures in 2020 alone.

The four say they're laying all this cable to increase bandwidth across the most developed parts of the world and bring better connectivity to under-served regions like Africa and Southeast Asia.

Vertically integrating down to the internet's physical infrastructure reduces the cost for delivering search, social network services, and cloud services. It also widens the moat between themselves and any potential competitors.

Look for tech companies to continue arguing in the press and court that they are not "common carriers" like telcos - because it would expose them to thousands of pages of regulations particular to that status.

SIX

Intel "mega-fab" is coming to Ohio.

Intel is reportedly planning to build a large chip facility in New Albany, Ohio, a suburb of Columbus, the state capital.

Intel reportedly plans to invest $20 billion in the site, and the city of New Albany is working to annex up to 3,600 acres of land to accommodate the facility.

This investment is a BFD for the United States, Ohio, and the Great Lakes Region.

Ohio has landed what could become the most extensive semiconductor operation on Earth.

Look for Ohio to be the leader in developing the "Silicon Heartland" and securing the Great Lakes Region as the place for cutting-edge technology for decades.

SEVEN

Space is the place for resources and glory.

The US, China, Russia, India, Japan, and South Korea are all planning lunar missions in 2022 and beyond.

The Outer Space Treaty of 1967, joined by all of today's key players, states that "space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means."

"Space is a frontier that creates dreams and hopes in the minds of people. It is also an important infrastructure for the nation's economic security." -- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida

Look for growing cosmic competition for resources, technological superiority, and national glory, with the potential to amplify rising international political tensions on Earth.

EIGHT

China's births hit a historic low.

China announced that its birthrate plummeted for a fifth straight year in 2021, moving the world's most populous country closer to the potentially seismic moment when its population will begin to shrink.

For the first time since the Great Leap Forward, China's population could soon begin to contract.

This demographic crisis could undermine China's economy and even its political stability.

Look for some of Beijing's centralized-government efforts only to compound the problem, prompting complaints and creating more anxiety around parenting and marriage.

NINE

Game-theory optimal has changed poker forever.

Professional poker players learn from computers how to make their play more unpredictable and harder to beat.

Professional poker players have added computer geeks to their team due to Richard Gibson's dissertation, "Regret Minimization in Games and the Development of Champion Multiplayer Computer Poker-Playing Agents." Pros now hire computer programmers to analyze their game data, find "leaks" or mistakes in their play, and perform game-theoretical analysis.

Regret is a math concept to making decisions in an uncertain environment—it's the difference between an optimal decision and an actual decision. The key is to make your playing more unpredictable and thus less exploitable.

Look for all types of poker players to engage in a style of play called "GTO" (game-theory optimal) with the knowledge that eventually, their opponents will err, and they will profit.

TEN

NFL fandom expands to international markets.

In March 2021, the NFL signed an 11-year-deal with its media partners valued at about $110 billion.

Pro football viewership on television and digital streams has only jumped upward, growing 10 percent and reaching its highest regular-season average in six years.

Pro football dominants the United States like no other sport. Pro football is must-watch programming.

NFL games accounted for 48 of the top 50 most-watched broadcasts in the 2021 regular season and 91 of the top 100.

Not content with the United States, the NFL has unveiled International Home Marketing Areas, calling it a "strategic effort to enable clubs to build their global brands while driving NFL fan growth internationally."

Look for the NFL to grow new fans in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Mexico, Spain, and the United Kingdom.